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2010
08/28
Sat

2010年08月28日(土曜日) 一歩前進 ?

day by day

 (05:30)早朝に起きる用事があったので、ちょっと見たら、やはりこの部分でしょう。ジャクソン・ホールでのバーナンキ講演での重要部分です。日銀も「金融緩和の検討に入った」との報道。

 どちらとも具体的に何をするのかは明らかではない。しかし市場に対して、「ちゃんと見ていますよ」と両人が言った段階で、世界の市場は安心した。ニューヨークの株はこの文章を書いている段階で、ダウで見て150ドルを超える上げ。

 「無視への逆襲」が完全に終わったのかどうかは分からない。日米両国政府も出来ることは限られているし、何よりも消費者が自信を失っている面がある。しかし、ある意味で一歩前進でしょう。

Conclusion

This morning I have reviewed the outlook, the Federal Reserve's response, and its policy options for the future should the recovery falter or inflation decline further.

In sum, the pace of recovery in output and employmenthas slowed somewhat in recent months, in part because of slower-than-expected growth in consumer spending, as well as continued weakness in residential and nonresidential construction. Despite this recent slowing, however, it is reasonable to expect some pickup in growth in 2011 and in subsequent years. Broad financial conditions, including monetary policy, are supportive of growth, and banks appear to have become somewhat more willing to lend. Importantly, households may have made more progress than we had earlier thought in repairing their balance sheets, allowing them more flexibility to increase their spending as conditions improve. And as the expansion strengthens, firms should become more willing to hire. Inflation should remain subdued for some time, with low risks of either a significant increase or decrease from current levels.

Although what I have just described is, I believe, the most plausible outcome, macroeconomic projections are inherently uncertain, and the economy remains vulnerable to unexpected developments. The Federal Reserve is already supporting the economic recovery by maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy, using multiple tools.Should further action prove necessary, policy options are available to provide additional stimulus.Any deployment of these options requires a careful comparison of benefit and cost.However, the Committee will certainly use its tools as needed to maintain price stability--avoiding excessive inflation or further disinflation--and to promote the continuation of the economic recovery.

As I said at the beginning, we have come a long way, but there is still some way to travel. Together with other economic policymakers and the private sector,the Federal Reserve remains committed to playing its part to help the U.S. economy return to sustained, noninflationary growth.

05:02
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